DOVER Corp (DOV) Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 delivered 5% revenue growth to $2.08B (+0.5% organic) and record consolidated adjusted segment EBITDA margin of 26.1%; adjusted EPS rose 15% to $2.62 while GAAP EPS was $2.20, down 3% YoY .
• Versus Street, EPS beat by ~$0.11 while revenue missed by ~$31M; margin strength, mix and productivity offset near-term headwinds in vehicle aftermarket and refrigerated door cases; FY adjusted EPS guidance raised to $9.50–$9.60 from $9.35–$9.55 .
• Orders/bookings accelerated; total Q3 bookings reached ~$2.00B with +25% bookings growth in Climate & Sustainability Technologies, setting up Q4 acceleration and a constructive 2026 narrative .
• Management highlighted secular growth engines (liquid cooling for data centers, single‑use biopharma, CO2 refrigeration), outperformance from recent acquisitions (e.g., Socora), and ~$40M rollover productivity benefits planned for 2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Record adjusted segment EBITDA margin of 26.1% on positive mix, execution, and cost containment; adjusted EPS +15% YoY to $2.62 .
• Secular growth platforms scaled: Pumps & Process Solutions up 6% organically; strong demand in single‑use biopharma components and thermal connectors for data center liquid cooling; Socora acquisition significantly outperformed underwriting case .
• Orders momentum and Q4 visibility improved; CST bookings +25% with anticipated return to segment growth in Q4; management raised FY adjusted EPS guidance .

What Went Wrong

• Refrigerated door cases and vehicle services pressured Engineered Products and CST; industry‑wide door case shipments at 20‑year lows and vehicle services weaker, impacting organic growth and revenue conversion .
• GAAP EPS declined 3% YoY on prior‑year disposition gains (De‑Sta‑Co and equity method investment), masking underlying operational improvement .
• Revenue modestly missed consensus despite strong margin conversion, reflecting delayed customer projects and tariff uncertainty pushing revenue to the right .

Financial Results

Quarterly Trend – Revenue, EPS, Margin

YoY Comparison – Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024

Actuals vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment Breakdown – Q3 2025

KPIs and Cash Flow

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “Margin performance in the quarter was exemplary, with a record consolidated EBITDA margin of 26.1%... all five segments posted margin improvements during the quarter.” – CEO Richard J. Tobin .
• “Order trends continued to post positive momentum... We have a constructive outlook for the remainder of 2025... increasing our full year adjusted EPS guidance from $9.35–$9.55 to $9.50–$9.60.” – CEO .
• “We expect to generate over $100 million in revenue this year alone” from data center liquid‑cooling connectors and heat exchangers – CEO .
• “Our recently closed Socora acquisition is significantly outperforming our underwriting case.” – CEO .
• “These initiatives are projected to contribute $40 million in incremental carryover benefit in 2026, with additional benefits extending into 2027.” – CEO on productivity and footprint optimization .

Q&A Highlights

• Refrigeration and vehicle services: bookings cadence improved across Q3; large revenue headwind (~$140–$150M) absorbed in 2025 with recovery expected into 2026; Q4 organic implied mid‑single digits .
• Capital returns: management signaled willingness to intervene on buybacks, noting shares are “cheap” .
• 2026 setup: no businesses currently forecasting down revenue; constructive mix and rollover productivity support further margin progression .
• Data center exposure: focus on spec wins with reference customers; expect to capture “fair share” as market grows .
• Orders conversion: improved bookings expected to translate better in Q4/2026; refrigeration pushouts viewed as timing rather than lost revenue .
• DII serialization software: ~$60–70M revenue, ~16% of segment; leveraged to pharma production buildouts .

Estimates Context

• Q3 2025: EPS beat ($2.62 vs $2.51*), revenue miss ($2.078B vs $2.109B*); EBITDA in-line (~$487M* estimate vs similar tracked metric*) .
• Prior quarters: EPS beats and revenue close to consensus (Q2 EPS $2.44 vs $2.39*; revenue $2.050B vs $2.037B*; Q1 EPS $2.05 vs $1.98*; revenue $1.866B vs $1.876B*) .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implication: Street may need to raise FY adjusted EPS on sustained margin outperformance and higher guidance, while revenue models should reflect improved bookings and Q4 acceleration tempered by capital goods timing and tariff dynamics .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Quality beat: Strong margin execution drove an EPS beat despite a modest revenue shortfall; operating leverage and mix remain the primary drivers .
• Guidance raised: FY adjusted EPS increased to $9.50–$9.60; Q4 set up for top‑line acceleration on secular growth and improving end‑markets (CST) .
• Secular engines: Data center liquid cooling (> $100M 2025 revenue), single‑use biopharma, and CO2 refrigeration provide multi‑year growth vectors with capacity expansions underway .
• Near‑term headwinds are timing: Door case weakness linked to tariff uncertainty; improved bookings signal recovery; 2026 comps favorable as delayed projects convert .
• Productivity tailwind: Center‑led functions and footprint optimization underpin margin resilience; ~$40M rollover benefit targeted in 2026 with additional in 2027 .
• Capital deployment optionality: Bolt‑on M&A focus; Socora outperformance supports returns; management open to buybacks given valuation .
• Cash generation strong: Q3 FCF ~$370M with CFO/FCF acceleration; full‑year FCF guidance 14%–16% of revenue intact .

Citations:
Executive and financial data from Q3 2025 8‑K and press release ; bookings and KPIs ; segment detail ; prior quarters Q1/Q2 8‑Ks ; earnings call transcript content ; dividend press release .